Communities secretary turns to football analogy as he says it is not ‘90th minute’ for party, amid warnings of a wipeoutSign up to our Election Edition daily newsletterIn case you missed this late yesterday: Conservatives are projected to slump to their “lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history” at the General Election, according to the latest YouGov poll.
YouGov said its latest study projects Labour to secure 425 seats, the Tories 108, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two. It noted such a scenario would hand Keir Starmer a 200-seat majority while it added Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is “likely” to win in Clacton.The findings are similar to those from the Guardian’s Ipsos MRP poll on Tuesday, which showed the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453.
YouGov used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to model the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain, PA reports.
It said the estimated seat projections were based on modelled responses from 36,161 adults in England and Wales, and 3,818 in Scotland, between June 11 and 18. Several high-profile Conservatives, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, would lose out if the projection played out at the ballot box on 4 July.
YouGov wrote:Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history.Our latest model has 109 seats as toss ups – meaning that the winning party’s lead is less than five points. Sixty five marginal seats are contests between the Conservatives and Labour.” Continue reading…
Source link : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/20/uk-general-election-2024-live-updates-labour-tories-polls-seats-inflation
Author : Helen Sullivan
Publish date : 2024-06-20 07:04:04
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